Sun. Apr 11th, 2021


Now that we have separated the wheat from the chaff, we will find out who will make up our NFL final four this week in the divisional round of the playoffs. The No. 1 seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers are set to take the field after having last weekend off, and they will both take on a couple of feisty No. 6 seeds in the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams, who are hungry to prove that they are legitimate contenders and not one-upset wonders. Super Wild-Card Weekend certainly lived up to the hype, and this weekend’s divisional round has the potential to be even more exciting. 

Each week, we’ll collect all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. This is your one-stop shop when it comes to picks! 

All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook

Rams at Packers

Time: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (Try for free)

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-7

“This is the classic playoff battle of the No. 1 offense in Green Bay against the top defense in Los Angeles. What will give? If the Rams have a limited Aaron Donald, who has a rib injury, that will impact the defense in a big way. The single blocks won’t come as much for the edge rushers, which will put a lot more pressure on the back end. The Packers were playing outstanding offense before the break, but the time off could hurt. Aaron Rodgers vs. the Rams secondary and Jalen Ramsey will be fun, especially if Ramsey spends a lot of time on Davante Adams. The Rams will start Jared Goff and his injured thumb (editor’s note: John Wolford has been ruled out). Goff did a nice job last week off the bench against Seattle. The key for the Rams will be how well they run it against a Green Bay defense that has trouble with the run. The Packers defense did play better in the final four games. I think the Packers will be too much in this one. Look for Rodgers and company to move on.” — Pete Prisco on why he likes the Packers to cover the spread

Legendary handicapper Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg of SportsLine says he has a great read on this matchup between Los Angeles and Green Bay. He’s 23-16-4 over his last 43 NFL against-the-spread picks and is 13-8 in his last 21 Packers against-the-spread picks. Check out his pick, here

“The Rams have an awesome defense, but the Green Bay offense ranks No. 1 in points per drive, percentage of drives that end in a score, percentage of drives that end in a turnover they are last, so they’re the best team there. Rodgers has 48 touchdowns, five interceptions — if you’re the Rams, you’re not going to slow him down completely I don’t care what defensive backs you’re throwing out there he’s too good. The Rams’ only hope is to run the ball because Goff wasn’t good against Seattle. It’s going to be with that hand that’s giving him issues in cold weather — I don’t like how that’s going to set up. And that Green Bay defense is playing really well, they have allowed 16 or less in four out of the last five including to a great run offense in Tennessee, and that’s how I think the Rams have to play is to run the ball.” — SportsLine’s R.J. White on the Pick Six Podcast, describing why he’s leaning towards Green Bay to cover.

On the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast, Will Brinson is joined by Pete Prisco, R.J. White, and Kenny White to break down each divisional game from a gambling perspective and make best bets. Each of them gets a hypothetical $100 to allocate through their weekend picks; listen below and be sure to subscribe here.

“The Rams have an awesome defense, but the Green Bay offense ranks No. 1 in points per drive, percentage of drives that end in a score, percentage of drives that end in a turnover they are last, so they’re the best team there. Rodgers has 48 touchdowns, five interceptions — if you’re the Rams, you’re not going to slow him down completely, I don’t care what defensive backs you’re throwing out there; he’s too good. The Rams’ only hope is to run the ball because Goff wasn’t good against Seattle. It’s going to be with that hand that’s giving him issues in cold weather — I don’t like how that’s going to set up. And that Green Bay defense is playing really well. They have allowed 16 or less in four out of the last five including to a great run offense in Tennessee, and that’s how I think the Rams have to play is to run the ball.” — SportsLine’s R.J. White on the Pick Six Podcast, describing why he’s leaning towards Green Bay to cover.

“Over the last two seasons, the Over is 5-0 in outdoor playoff games with a kickoff temperature below freezing. The temperature at kickoff has a good chance of being below freezing, and with the Packers having gone Over in five straight playoff games coupled with the fact that this is the lowest total on the board this weekend, I’m taking the Over.” — Jordan Dajani

Top prop picks

Davante Adams to score a touchdown and Packers win (+105)

“I think Davante Adams finds the end zone, I mean this guy is a monster. He has caught a touchdown every week with the exception of Week 15 against Carolina dating back to Week 6. He came back from injury in Week 6 and caught a touchdown in eight straight games and caught three in Week 16 and one more in Week 17 in Chicago. He’s a touchdown monster, Aaron Rodgers looks his way in the red zone, he gets open in short yardage, he gets open in long yardage, he can break one.” — CBS Sports’ Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast.

Cam Akers Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115)

“Akers has at least 22 receiving yards in four of his past five games. He also has at least three targets in three of his past four, solidifying his role as an option in the pass game. Over their last four games, the Packers have allowed an 85% catch rate and 7.4 yards per reception to running backs.” — CBS Sports’ Dave Richard

Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (Try for free)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-2.5

“To be clear, we’re not quite sure yet whether Buffalo will actually get snow on Saturday night. But here’s what we are sure of: Lamar Jackson and Co. should be able to run the ball against Sean McDermott’s defense. The Ravens didn’t exactly explode against the Titans in the wild-card round, and we’re still big believers in Josh Allen’s play-making abilities. But something says Jackson’s electricity, coupled with the rest of Baltimore’s ground game, will come up big in what figures to be a blow-for-blow fight to the finish. Here comes another showdown between the 2018 and 2019 MVPs in the AFC title game!” — Cody Benjamin on why one of his five bold predictions is the Ravens upsetting the Bills. 

“This will be a battle of two star quarterbacks, one who runs it as well as anybody ever has from the position in Lamar Jackson, and the other in Josh Allen, who has been outstanding throwing it this season. The Ravens will make no bones about what they want to do on offense, which is to pound it. They are averaging 262 rushing yards a game in their last six games. The Bills have improved against the run from earlier in the year, but this will be a big challenge. The strategy from coordinator Leslie Frazier will be something to watch in terms of trying to keep Jackson contained. The Ravens defense is back healthy now, which is why they impressed last week against the Titans. But this is a bigger challenge in facing Allen. This will be a close game, but in the end I think Allen will make the game-winning plays late to pull it out — but it will be razor-thin close.” — Pete Prisco on why he’s taking the Ravens to cover

“We’ve also heard this week about how Lamar Jackson has never played in snow before. Current forecasts are calling for cold and snow in Buffalo because it’s Buffalo in January. I’m just not sure how much of an impact that will have on Lamar because while he hasn’t played in the snow, he has played in the cold. It’s not like division rivals Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnati are in warm-weather climates. I don’t see the weather impacting one team more than the other. Instead, what I see is the weather impacting the way each team plays. It’s not only going to be cold with snow in the forecast, but high winds as well. The weather may force both teams to keep the ball on the ground more often than usual, and it could impact Josh Allen and Buffalo’s desire to throw downfield. You know, assuming there’s any force in nature that can affect Josh Allen’s lasers. Either way, I see the weather putting a cramp in both offenses and affecting the kicking game as well, so with all that in mind, this total seems a little too high.” — Tom Fornelli on why he’s leaning Under on Bills-Ravens

Top prop picks

J.K. Dobbins total rushing yards: Over 58.5 (-120) —  — SportsLine’s R.J. White on the Pick Six Podcast

Lamar Jackson total rushing yards: Over 75.5 (-115) — Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast

Browns at Chiefs

Time: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on CBS All Access    

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-10

Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield have faced each other just once in their NFL careers, back in Week 9 of 2018 when the Chiefs beat the Browns by 16 points. It’s not the only time they have ever faced off in their football careers, however, as the two set a college-football record with 1,279 combined passing yards when Oklahoma and Texas Tech matched up in 2016. It’s more about the run game when it comes to the Browns, however, as in 14 games with Nick Chubb active, the Browns have rushed for 160.2 yards per game and 23 touchdowns, and finished the regular season with the No. 3 rushing offense in the league. Interestingly enough, the Chiefs have allowed 122.1 rushing yards per game this season, which is worst among all playoff teams. Still, I have a hard time believing that the Browns will upset the Chiefs in the divisional round. I do think that they can cover the spread, however, as the Chiefs haven’t won a game by more than six points since Week 8. Since Week 9 they are 1-7 against the spread, which is worst in the NFL!” — Jordan Dajani on why he’s leaning towards Cleveland to cover

SportsLine Senior analyst Larry Hartstein is 15-2 in his last 17 picks in games that include the Chiefs, and he has a best bet for this divisional-round matchup. Check out his pick on SportsLine, here.  

“The Browns’ biggest defensive weakness is their secondary and that’s not a weakness you can afford to have when you’re playing the Chiefs. The one thing that does worry me about the Chiefs is the rust factor. Normally, I don’t put much stock in something like that, but their starters won’t have played for three weeks by the time they take the field on Sunday. Last year, they fell behind 24-0 to the Texans before the rust wore off and now, they have to play a Browns team that just had the best first quarter of any team in NFL playoff history. That’s not an ideal combination for Kansas City. 

“I’m fully expecting this game to be a shootout just like it is every time Baker Mayfield and Mahomes play each other.” — John Breech on why he’s eyeing the Over

Top prop picks

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125)

The Chiefs pass defense has allowed at least two touchdowns in eight straight games. Mayfield has fired at least two scores in five of his past seven. The line suggests the Browns will have to chase the scoreboard. The odds aren’t ideal but it feels very safe. — CBS Sports’ Dave Richard

Austin Hooper anytime TD (+250)

Hooper has come alive in his past six games, registering an average of 6.8 targets per game and scoring in four of them (and each of his past two). Kansas City has afforded a touchdown to a tight end in each of its past two games, and three of the past four. — CBS Sports’ Dave Richard

Time: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (Try for free)

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
-3

“They did advance last week, but the Buccaneers did struggle a bit against Taylor Heinicke and it was hardly one of those wins you felt good about going forward. It kind of felt like they simply escaped rather than sent a message to the rest of the NFC that they were around to make a deep run. Meanwhile, the Saints had no problem with the Bears last time out, but you could make a case that we didn’t learn much about New Orleans either as Chicago did their best to come away with the ‘L.’ While Tampa Bay has the talent, it’s hard to trust them going on the road and slaying the Saints. In their careers, Drew Brees is 5-2 SU and ATS in head-to-head matchups with Tom Brady. This game will be closer than the previous matchups, but I’ll still roll with the status quo in New Orleans.” — Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Saints to cover on Sunday

“When two division rivals meet in the playoffs, I don’t necessarily pay attention to what happened during the regular season, but in this game, it’s kind of hard to ignore. The Saints blew out the Buccaneers twice this year with wins of 34-23 and 38-3, and yes, I count that first score as a blowout because it was 34-17 late in the game until the Buccaneers scored a garbage-time touchdown. Apparently, it’s supposed to be tough to beat a team three times in one season, but I’m starting to think that’s an old wives’ tale that some drunken NFL fan came up with one night after having one too many drinks on Bourbon Street. Since 1970, a total of 21 teams have gone 2-0 against a divisional opponent in the regular season and then faced them again in the playoffs and those 21 teams went 14-7 in the third game, which means 66.7% of the teams have finished the three-game sweep. Over the past 25 years, that number is 75% (9-3).” — John Breech on why he’s on the Saints to cover

“Tampa Bay’s offense is putting up big numbers thanks to Brady, but that New Orleans defense hasn’t allowed 300 passing yards in any game all year. So, that New Orleans offense could be a little sharper than last week, but I think their ‘D’ dictates the game and the offense gets conservative in the second half.” — SportsLine’s R.J. White on the Pick Six Podcast explaining why he’s leaning towards the Under. 

Top prop picks

Alvin Kamara Under 102.5 total yards (-115)

“Tampa Bay has allowed 100 total yards to just two running backs all year (Dalvin Cook, Brian Hill in Week 17). Shoot, only seven teams have had their running backs total 100 yards against this front! The Bucs have held opposing runners to 3.7 yards per carry in their past eight, and despite ranking first in running back receptions per game allowed (6.18), they’re sixth-best in yards per catch allowed (6.5) and 12th in receiving touchdowns per game allowed (0.18). Kamara is obviously a special player, but even he’s struggled to get even 70 total yards against the Bucs in two games this season despite five receptions in each game. I fully expect Kamara to score and get close to the number, but not over it.” — CBS Sports’ Dave Richard

Tom Brady Over 0.5 interceptions (-145) — Jordan Dajani 





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