Wed. Jan 20th, 2021


Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily. 

Let’s take a look at Week 10:

Team Opponent %Taken* Vegas ML** Vegas Odds Expected Loss
PACKERS Jaguars 55.90% 825 89.19 6.04
SAINTS 49ers 26.10% 360 78.26 5.67
RAIDERS Broncos 5.40% 215 68.25 1.71
Ravens PATRIOTS 3.60% 297.5 74.84 0.91
STEELERS Bengals 3.20% 282.5 73.86 0.84
LIONS Football Team 2.10% 166 62.41 0.79
Buccaneers PANTHERS 1.10% 202.5 66.94 0.36
Eagles GIANTS 0.60% 165 62.26 0.23

Home teams in CAPS
* According to “polling” data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines  

Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?

Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That’s our risk ratio. 

In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let’s assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity. 

If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that’ll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49. 

The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77. 

As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,



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