Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily.
Let’s take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Jaguars | 55.90% | 825 | 89.19 | 6.04 |
| SAINTS | 49ers | 26.10% | 360 | 78.26 | 5.67 |
| RAIDERS | Broncos | 5.40% | 215 | 68.25 | 1.71 |
| Ravens | PATRIOTS | 3.60% | 297.5 | 74.84 | 0.91 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 3.20% | 282.5 | 73.86 | 0.84 |
| LIONS | Football Team | 2.10% | 166 | 62.41 | 0.79 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 1.10% | 202.5 | 66.94 | 0.36 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.23 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to “polling” data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?
Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That’s our risk ratio.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let’s assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity.
If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that’ll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49.
The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77.
As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,