Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily.
Let’s take a look at Week 10:
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to “polling” data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?
Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That’s our risk ratio.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let’s assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity.
If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that’ll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49.
The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77.
As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,